Trendchannel: Trend Following Futures Trading System.
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Welcome to Trendchannel.com
Futures Trading. I'm John Tolan,
the developer
of Trendchannel. To learn
more about our futures trading system and managed
futures accounts, please read all of the information provided below, scrolling down the
page.
(To Print this page,
set the left and right margins in your File, Page Setup to 0.5".)
If you have questions, or if you want additional information, please e-mail or call me.
e-mail address:
tolan@Trendchannel.com
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phone number:
970-948-6211
mailing address: 1501 Walz
Avenue, Glenwood Springs, CO 81601 |
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Trendchannel has been included in
the Futures
Truth "Top 10 Trading
Systems" since 2001.
Introduction: Long Term
Systematic Trend Following and the Model
Portfolio. As traders or investors, we all want the same
basic things. We prefer certainty to uncertainty and high returns to low
returns.
Our objective is to achieve a maximum rate of long term financial growth
while minimizing risk.
The Trendchannel Portfolio is
the best solution that I have found to achieve these goals, a futures account that applies the Trendchannel
Trading System to a balanced and diversified group of markets,
seeking to produce consistent performance with an efficient reward/risk
portfolio.
More than ever, investors are looking for alternative
investment strategies that can provide capital growth in all market conditions.
If the future is uncertain, then the best financial advice may be to
diversify over multiple financial asset classes and prepare for markets that can move up or down.
Now, with the new E-Mini futures contracts, even with a relatively small futures
account, you can achieve
broad diversification and profit potential by systematically trading the up and down
trends in the
most
actively traded 6 futures markets
that represent the 4 major investment asset classes:
Trendchannel Portfolio
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Asset
Class
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Futures
Market Traded
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Stock Index
Interest Rate
Currency
Commodity
|
E-Mini
Nasdaq 100
10 Yr
T- Note, Eurodollar
E-Mini Euro, E-Mini Yen
Soybeans
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Larger accounts
may trade additional markets (E-Mini Crude, E-Mini Gold)
and
multiple contracts.
You can give your portfolio a quick check-up with this question: Do you have
any investments now that will generate positive returns if the stock market goes down,
bonds go down (rates go higher), the
dollar loses value, or commodity prices (inflation) go up? If the answer is no, then you may
want to add a
Trendchannel Portfolio to your investments to diversify and
hedge to help reduce these market risks.
Profit and
Protection - A
Trendchannel Portfolio is
an Investment
Strategy with
the goal to enhance
returns, and it is an Investment Hedge that seeks to
reduce risks. By
taking advantage of both the
up and down trends caused by major
capital flows in and out of each market sector,
the
program attempts to profit from market trends, and at the same time, protect you from the negative effects of:
Inflation - the
erosion
of money buying power over time.
Declines in the Dollar - the
loss of Dollar buying power versus our
major trading partners' currency.
Interest rate changes - the rising costs of borrowing money or lower returns from
interest income.
Stock market declines - economic down cycles or geopolitical uncertainties.
Diversification - One of the
key tenets of Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Nobel Prize Winning
Economist, Dr. Harry M. Markowitz, is that more efficient portfolios can be
created by diversifying among asset categories with low to negative
correlations. Dr. John Lintner of
Harvard University states, "...judicious investments...in leveraged managed
futures accounts show substantially less risk at every possible
level of
expected return than portfolios of stocks (or stocks and bonds) alone."
Chicago Board of Trade's booklet, "Managed Futures, Portfolio Diversification
Opportunities",
shows a portfolio with the greatest risk and least returns
comprised of 55% stocks, 45% bonds, and 0% managed futures. In contrast, a
portfolio exhibiting the greatest returns and least risk,
comprised 45% stocks, 35% bonds and 20% managed futures.
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/docs/67790.pdf
Chicago Mercantile Exchange published a study concluding that a portfolio
with 20% in managed futures yields up to 50% more than stock and
bond portfolios, while possessing comparable risk.
To achieve this suggested portfolio mix, consider allocating 20% of your
financial portfolio assets
to a managed futures
account trading a
Trendchannel Portfolio.
Summary of Potential Benefits:
Diversifier, Return Enhancer, Risk Reducer.
- Profit and Protection from Macro Economic Developments
- Earn Above Average Returns
- Capitalize on U.S. and Global Market Trends
- Increase Your Portfolio Diversification
- Maintain Liquidity of Your Investment Capital
- Invest with a
Time-Tested and 100% Automated System Strategy
Trendchannel, as a futures trading system,
has the necessary components that work together to automatically
provide solutions to the 3 basic investment questions: When, What, and How Much.
Or to use financial terminology: Market Timing, Asset Allocation, Money Management
and Risk Control.
1) When or Market
Timing - When to enter and exit the market: The
Trend Indicator component of the Trendchannel System is based on a mathematical formula that combines adaptive
measurements of price direction, momentum, and volatility to define when the markets are
trending up, side, or down - giving
precise, computer
generated entry and exit signals, seeking to
profit from market trends. Trendchannel
has been included in the Futures Truth "Top 10 Trading
Systems" since 2001.
2) What to Trade or Asset Allocation: Trendchannel
is a versatile trend trading system that has
been developed, tested, and can be applied to all
markets. However,
instead of randomly selecting markets,
the Trendchannel Portfolio
trades
the key markets that represents
each Asset Class:
Nasdaq
100 is the proxy for large
capitalization
technology stocks.
10
Year Treasury Note and Eurodollar are the
benchmarks for long and short-term interest rates.
Euro and
Yen are 68% of the CME$Index of currencies.
Soybeans
are the largest agricultural commodity futures.
Larger accounts
may trade additional markets (E-Mini Crude, E-Mini Gold)
and multiple contracts. Capital
Markets are inter-connected and inter-dependent - changes in any one
of these markets can
cause an effect on the other markets in the Portfolio.
Capital continually flows in and out of these assets,
creating opportunities to profit from the resulting trends. The cost of money (10
Year Treasury Note), the
cost of energy (Crude Oil), and the value of the dollar vs. our trading
partners' currency (Euro, Yen) - all of
these cause an effect on the profitability of companies and consumer spending -
stock prices (Nasdaq 100).
When investors are optimistic they buy stocks and
sell bonds. When they are pessimistic or seek safety,
they sell stocks and buy bonds. We are
seeking profit and protection by trading these CapitalFlow
trends.
When traded as a Balanced
and Diversified Trend Trading Portfolio,
these
Capital markets
have
historically generated the most profitable long-term trends
with the
minimum
level of volatility
risk.
3)
How Much or Money Management/Risk Control: Trendchannel Portfolios
use
money management techniques with the objective to maximum
returns with minimum drawdowns for any account size.
Starter
Portfolio:
You can begin with an initial account size of $20,000, trading
one futures contract per market. Larger accounts may
trade additional markets (Eurodollar, E-Mini Yen, E-Mini Crude, E-Mini
Gold)
and multiple contracts.
E-Mini futures contracts are
electronically traded and smaller than full-size contracts.
The
Total
Initial Margin Requirement for
the 4
Market Starter
Portfolio
is
$6,693 as of
Dec 31, 2007.
Futures
Contract |
$Margin |
|
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| E-Mini
Nasdaq 100 |
3,250 |
|
|
| 10
Year Treasury Note |
1,620 |
|
|
| E-Mini
Euro |
1,283 |
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E-MiniSoybeans |
540 |
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Trendchannel
Performance for the 6 market
Trendchannel Portfolio.
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Asset
Class
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Futures
Market Traded
|
|
Stock Index
Interest Rate
Currency
Commodity
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E-Mini
Nasdaq 100
10 Yr
T- Note, Eurodollar
E-Mini Euro, E-Mini Yen
Soybeans
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The recommended
minimum account size for the 6 Market Trendchannel Portfolio is
$30,000.
Total Initial Margin Requirement for this Trendchannel Portfolio is
$11,081 as of Dec 31, 2007.
Here are the actual trading results, the net dollar
profit/loss
($P/L),
for my own 6 market Trendchannel Portfolio
futures trading account:
2008 +$17,421 (as of Feb 22, 2008)
2007 +$14,688
2006 -$ 3,462
Maximum Drawdown for this 2 year period was $8,758.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS
NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors:
Please see:
Risk Disclosure
To gain
more historical perspective, the chart and table below show hypothetical performance
for the Trendchannel Portfolio beginning Jan 1995,
the dollar profit/loss ($P/L)
trading one futures contract per market in the E-Mini Nasdaq (E-ND), 10 Year
Treasury Note
(TY), Eurodollar (ED), E-Mini Euro (E-EC), E-Mini Yen (E-JY), and Soybeans (S).

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E-ND |
TY |
ED |
E-EC |
E-JY |
S |
$P/L |
$P/L |
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Dec-05 |
-4,480 |
-609 |
411 |
-3,044 |
1,556 |
2,800 |
-3,366 |
202,980 |
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Dec-04 |
-630 |
703 |
120 |
-125 |
-2,100 |
7,975 |
5,943 |
206,345 |
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Dec-03 |
2,240 |
406 |
-1,027 |
8,288 |
219 |
9,537 |
19,662 |
200,402 |
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Dec-02 |
8,670 |
7,328 |
2,682 |
7,581 |
-3,325 |
1,937 |
24,873 |
180,740 |
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Dec-01 |
13,380 |
734 |
9,782 |
-2,713 |
5,406 |
3,075 |
29,665 |
155,867 |
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Dec-00 |
21,776 |
6,640 |
2,230 |
8,806 |
3,863 |
700 |
44,015 |
126,203 |
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Dec-99 |
20,749 |
140 |
832 |
2,750 |
300 |
2,437 |
27,208 |
82,188 |
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Dec-98 |
3,703 |
1,843 |
212 |
-1,681 |
11,119 |
-900 |
14,296 |
54,980 |
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Dec-97 |
1,178 |
1,906 |
137 |
-256 |
7,969 |
-1,662 |
9,272 |
40,685 |
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Dec-96 |
1,550 |
-2,375 |
-1,450 |
6,525 |
6,756 |
-2,875 |
8,131 |
31,413 |
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Dec-95 |
1,413 |
12,593 |
-112 |
-6,375 |
16,738 |
-975 |
23,282 |
23,282 |
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Average |
6,323 |
2,664 |
1,256 |
1,796 |
4,409 |
2,004 |
18,453 |
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Notes to the Chart
and Table
shown above:
All numbers are annual $Profit/Loss ($P/L), including closed trades
and open trade equity,
the net
liquidating value at year end. The last column is the running total annual
$P/L.
The Nasdaq 100 began trading in 1996. The Nasdaq 100 index x 20 was used
for 1995.
The Euro (EC) began trading in 1999. The Swiss Franc was used for 1995
through 1998.
The E-Mini $P/L = (full-size contract)/2. E-Mini Nasdaq = ND/5.
TradeStation software and continuous data charts were used to generate the
hypothetical
performance. Commissions are not included. Trendchannel averages 8 trades,
(one contract per trade) per market per year.
HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL
OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN
FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A
PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL
POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE
ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Advisory: Portfolios may be revised in the future based on changes in margin
requirements, futures trading volume, volatility, correlation, or other possible considerations. Margin to equity
ratios and position size are general guidelines for the
aggressive investor or trader. You must evaluate your own financial situation
and
risk tolerance to determine what is suitable for you. Please see: Risk
Disclosure
Financial Suitability:
The Trendchannel Portfolio is designed
to be a complement to your investments. Seeking to maintain diversification
and balance, increase returns, reduce volatility risk, and provide an
investment hedge, I suggest a maximum allocation of
$20,000 in managed futures
per $100,000 in total financial
assets, creating a portfolio mix that is 80% stocks and bonds, and 20%
managed futures.
In conclusion, to achieve your financial goals of both return enhancement and risk
reduction, it
may be wise to diversify by allocating a portion of your investment capital to
a managed futures account trading a Trendchannel Portfolio
- a Systematic,
Trend Trading, Asset Allocation Strategy.
You
can direct a full service Trendchannel
System Assist Broker to
auto-execute the Trendchannel
Trading System signals for your account.
Trendchannel
System Assist
is
a simple,
time-saving,
and
cost effective way to take advantage of
opportunities in
futures. It's easy to open an
account and you can begin
trading the system at any time.
Or, if you
prefer to trade on your own, you can purchase the
Trendchannel
System and receive
by e-mail the fully disclosed Trendchannel
System Manual and Trading Guide. For self-directed
traders, please see this page to learn more: http://www.trendchannel.com/futurestradingsystem.htm
Trendchannel
Purchase:
If
you would like to purchase
the fully disclosed Trendchannel
System now, plus the Trendchannel
Trading Guide and all of the other extras included, to
be sent immediately to your e-mail address, please
send
a check
in the amount of $1,995 payable to Trendchannel, and
mail your payment to:
Trendchannel,
1501 Walz Avenue, Glenwood Springs, CO 81601
(please include your e-mail address)
Before
Purchasing, please read the: Risk
Disclosure and Customer Agreement
If you have any questions, if you want additional information, or to get started
now,
please don't
hesitate
to e-mail or call
me. Thank you for your attention. I look forward to hearing from
you.
John
Tolan, Trendchannel System
Developer, tolan@Trendchannel.com
970-948-6211
Scientific
Trading Solutions, Inc. 1501
Walz Avenue,
Glenwood Springs, CO 81601
To
read about my background
as it relates to research and development of Trendchannel, please
see:
John Tolan Biographical Information,
"My Story"
http://www.trendchannel.com/mystory.htm
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Futures
trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors: Please see: Risk
Disclosure
Scientific Trading Solutions, Inc. (DBA Trendchannel) is registered as a CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) with the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission (CFTC). The NFA (National Futures Association) can be
contacted for verification of CTA status. Futures Trading Systems:
http://www.futurestradingsystems.com
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1999-2008 Scientific Trading Solutions, Inc. Futures Trading
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