|
|
Welcome to Trendchannel.com. I'm John Tolan,
the developer of Trendchannel.
To learn
more about our trend following, futures trading system,
please read all of the information provided below, scrolling down the
page.
(To Print this page,
set the left and right margins in your File, Page Setup to 0.5".)
If you have questions, or if you want additional information, please e-mail or call me.
e-mail address:
tolan@Trendchannel.com
|
phone number:
970-948-6211
mailing address: 1501 Walz
Avenue, Glenwood Springs, CO 81601 |
|
Trendchannel has been included in
the Futures
Truth "Top 10 Trading
Systems" since 2001.
Trendchannel
has the essential components of a system that work together to
automatically provide answers to the 3 Basic Trading Questions: When,
What, and How Much to trade. Or to use financial terminology: Market Timing, Asset
Allocation, Money Management and Risk Control.
1) When to Trade or Market Timing - When to enter and exit the market:
The Trend Indicator component of the Trendchannel
System is based on a mathematical formula that
combines adaptive measurements
of price direction, momentum, and volatility to define when
the markets are trending. The System is designed to
automatically adapt to changing market conditions seeking to profit
from market trends.
The Trendchannel
System's
trend indicator is
a
solution that
I discovered after many years of research and literally 100's
of tests.
The Trendchannel
trend indicator
filters out the
"noise" in the market, identifying
the trend - "the music", giving the exact
price levels that will signal a change in trend. This
trend signal alerts you when to buy and when to sell. It gives
you precise, computer generated entry and exit signals. This
eliminates the human elements of subjective judgment and emotion that
can unconsciously influence your decision making process
when you're trying to determine the trend of the market. Automatic
green light, red
light signals help you to make clear and timely decisions in the
"heat of battle".
The
finished product, Trendchannel, is
different from other technical studies and trading systems that are
available. Trendchannel
defines
trends in a way that is consistent with classical trend analysis, but
it is designed to attempt to keep you out of sideways or trend-less markets and
get you in early and keep you in the market
for the full ride in a major trend.
2) What to Trade or Asset
Allocation: In addition to the Trendchannel
Portfolios, Trendchannel
is
a versatile trend trading system that has been developed, tested, and can
be applied to all markets - including stocks,
bonds, ETFs, futures, commodities, and forex.
3)
How Much to Trade or Money Management/Risk Control:
Trendchannel
Portfolios use
money management techniques
(explained in more detail in the Trendchannel
Trading Guide) with the objective to maximum returns
with minimum drawdowns for any account size.
Historical Testing,
Development, and Hypothetical Performance.
Developing
the Trading System: Over the years, I
was always intrigued by the possibility of creating a mechanical
system to trade the markets.* I began the system development process
by looking at other existing indicators and trend following trading
systems, and then correcting what I found to be flaws or drawbacks
with these methods. Extensive historical testing (using a computer to
make literally 100's of simulated tests) helped me to identify the
most desirable trading system characteristics, improve and simplify
system formula design, confirm the final system's robust nature (the
same formula can be applied to all
markets), and
to get a realistic idea of the system's potential performance in the
future.
*To
read about my background, as it relates to the development of
Trendchannel, please go to this page: John
Tolan Biographical Information and "My Story" -
http://www.trendchannel.com/mystory.htm
Trendchannel can be described as a medium to long-term, trend
following trading system.
It is not an "over-optimized" or
"curve-fit" system. These systems generate outstanding
results in testing because the system rules and parameters have been
adjusted, with the benefit of hindsight, to fit the data being tested.
The problem with curve-fit systems is that actual performance has
little chance to equal back-tested performance. The more rules and
parameters a system has, the more likely the system has been
curve-fit. Some other signs include the use of different, specifically
formulated rules for each market,
or varying the parameter settings for each market the system trades.
Curve-fit systems also generate erratic results when parameter values
are changed. When
a system is based on a sound testing methodology, it should produce a
wide range of profitable results when parameters are modified and it
should produce positive results over a wide range of markets.
The Trendchannel formula
has only 2 parameters and the same parameter values are used
across all markets. In historical tests, the Trendchannel
System produces consistent,
positive results, even with changes in parameter settings.
The suggested parameter settings that come with the system are in the
center of the bell curve, the profit plateau, when measuring the
largest total profits on 40 or more of the highest volume futures
markets tested on 30 years of market data. This test totals
approximately 12,800 trades.
Statistical
Trading Edge: The futures markets that trade the Trendchannel
System in the 6 market Trendchannel
Portfolio, produce on average these hypothetical statistical
results:
Probability or % Win: 41.8%
Reward/Risk or Win/Loss ratio: 3.8/1
Trade signals per year: 5. (8 trades per year including rolling
positions in expiring futures contracts forward)
.418
x 3.8 x 5 = Total Profit.
Source
of data: TradeStation Strategy Performance Reports, 1/21/2005.
In baseball stats, this would translate into a .418 batting
average, hitting either a triple or home run.
(and without the risk of using steroids)
Although your
attention may be drawn to the results of each individual trade (each "at bat" ) what matters most is the long-term
bottom-line performance of your entire Trendchannel Portfolio.
HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL
OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN
FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A
PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL
POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE
ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
How to Track and Trade the Trendchannel System.
Trendchannel
is a long-term, channel breakout, trend following trading system
Trendchannel is
adaptive, end-of-day, 100% mechanical, and fully disclosed.
Trading the Trendchannel System is an
end-of-day process.
Trends are defined as: UP, SIDE, or DOWN.
The Trendchannel System
indicates support and resistance levels that form the
"Trendchannel".
An example that illustrates the Trendchannel
System is provided below. This chart from TradeStation
shows the Trendchannel System
applied to daily bar data on the Nasdaq 100.
The Support and Resistance Levels - that are included with the
purchase of the Trendchannel Trading System
- are not shown here. For illustration purposes the trends are shown
with PaintBars.
Green bars indicate an UP
trend.
White bars indicate a SIDE trend.
Red bars indicate a DOWN
trend.
Trading Signals:
A new UP trend is signaled with Green
bars if the market closes above the Resistance level of a
SIDE trend. This is the signal to take a long position on the
next open and to hold until a SIDE trend is signaled.
A new DOWN trend is signaled with Red
bars if the market closes below the Support level of a SIDE
trend. This is the signal to take a short position on the next
open and to hold until a SIDE trend is signaled.
A new SIDE trend is signaled with white bars when the market closes
below the Support of an UP trend or above the Resistance of a DOWN
trend. This is the signal to EXIT the current long or short
position on the next open. No position is held while the market is in
a SIDE trend.
Simply stated: Buy the up trends, sell the down trends, and
exit positions when the market turns sideways.
These are the simple, 100% mechanical, trading instructions used to
track and trade Trendchannel.
FAQ:
What will I
need
to run the system? When
you purchase the system I will provide you with the complete
Trendchannel
System Formula
- fully disclosed.
The Trendchannel
can be easily set up
and will work on any charting
software/data
platform that includes
the
most basic
standard indicators and that allows you to adjust the parameters
settings on
the indicators.
Some
examples are: TradeStation,
CQG,
FutureSource, e-Signal, QCharts, MetaStock, DTN, etc.
FAQ:
What
if I
don't have any software/data service? You
do not need to have TradeStation to track Trendchannel.
FREE
charting services are available on the Internet that you can
use. I have used
them myself and they work. I
will show you how to get set up to
track the Trendchannel from
one of these
FREE
sources.
In addition, The Trendchannel Operating
Manual includes complete easy-to-follow set up
instructions.
FAQ: Can
I have someone trade the system for me?
Yes, you can
set
your Trendchannel
Account on "Automatic Pilot"
with a Trendchannel System Assist Broker.
If you want to take advantage of the Trendchannel System,
but you can't follow the markets every day, or if you would simply
prefer to have someone follow the system for you, a system assist
broker can trade the system
for your account. This gives you the
opportunity to use a tested system without having to take the time to
check signals and enter the trades.
FAQ: What's Included with my Trendchannel
System Purchase?
When you purchase the Trendchannel System,
you will receive:
The Trendchannel Trading Guide - This
is a complete guide to the basics of trend following combined
with
all of the trading procedures,
methodology,
and money management techniques
of the Trendchannel System.
Each trading rule
is fully explained and you are then shown step-by-step how to
apply
the
rule using the
Trendchannel
Trading
System.
Trendchannel
Trading Guide:
1) "The 5 BIG Mistakes
Traders Make", why traders make these mistakes, and how you
can avoid them.
2)
"The 5 Essential Rules for Successful Trading".
3)
A way traders
can earn higher returns, with less
volatility risk.
4) Why 90% of all futures
traders lose money over time.
5) How traders manage investment risks.
6) Ways
to achieve the 2 primary
trading objectives of the serious
trader or investor:
Assume the minimum risk to earn
the maximum return.
7)
"The Common Denominator of Trading Success".
8)
When, what, and how much to trade.
Trendchannel is
a powerful, fully integrated
system that seeks
to provide solutions
to the basic trading problems.
The complete Trendchannel
Trading System is much
more than the trend indicator component!
The advice I share with you in The
Trendchannel Trading
Guide is just as important and valuable as the Trendchannel Trading
System algorithm
component that
generates the entry
and exit signals.
Trendchannel
as
an end solution, is like a high
performance machine, made up of parts or components, that when
combined may produce superior results. The trading procedures,
techniques, and disciplines in combination with the portfolios give
you a complete trading strategy. It's similar to having your own
private hedge fund.
When you purchase the Trendchannel System, you will
receive by e-mail:
1) Trendchannel Futures
Trading System, Fully Disclosed. You will get the complete,
exact mathematical formula. The system logic is completely revealed to
you.
2) Trendchannel Trading Guide
- The Guide explains the research,
logic, and the reasons behind the system rules.
3) Trendchannel Operating Manual - Simple
and complete set up and user instructions are included. You will be
shown with exact step-by-step detail how to use the system. You
can follow the Trendchannel System on
any basic charting service.
You do not need to have TradeStation to use Trendchannel.
FREE internet
sources are also available. I will show you how to track the Trendchannel
from one of these web based charting services.
4) Trendchannel E-mail Newsletters and
Updates - As an added FREE
bonus, I will keep you updated on any new research discoveries,
including any future enhancements to the system, any suggested changes
in markets to include in the portfolios, and any suggested changes in
position size, money management techniques, trading strategies,
performance updates, and more.
5) Trendchannel
Support and Trading Advice - In addition to
helping you, to get set up to use the
system, I will provide ongoing education, training, and support with your Trendchannel
Purchase. If you have questions about the markets, trading, or
the Trendchannel System, you
are always welcome to e-mail or call me.
Once you have made your system
purchase, you are a lifetime, non-exclusive holder of
the Trendchannel
System. If you
want or need assistance, I would be glad to put you in touch with a Trendchannel
System Assist Broker and personally help you get your account
set up and started.
Additional
Potential Benefits of Owning the Trendchannel System:
More Freedom, Power, and Control.
1) You
will
have the power to accurately
determine and track
the trend
of any market - on
your own - giving you more freedom
and control in your trading
- whether you are trading on your own and/or having your account
managed with Trendchannel System Assist.
2) You
won't be forced to rely on outside sources for market
information, opinions, or
advice.
3) You can trade with more confidence
- because you will know the fully disclosed logic
and performance history of a tested
trend following trading system.
4) You can learn our system and
then apply
it to other systems or strategies that you are already using.
5) If you are already trading another system, consider adding Trendchannel
to your portfolio for a
greater level of diversification.
You will have an easy to use, and versatile trend
indicator that gives you the POWER to reliably define price
trends in all markets, both now and in the future. As long as
competitive, free markets exist, the Trendchannel
System should continue working for you, because it is
designed to continuously adapt to new and changing market conditions.
Trading
systems can cost as much as $5,000 or more.
However, I want to make the Trendchannel
System easy-to-get and
affordable. I want satisfied customers who feel like they have gotten
a good value when they purchase the system. At the same time, I want
ownership of the Trendchannel System
to remain exclusive. You
can purchase the Trendchannel Trading
System for $1,995.
With
your Trendchannel purchase you will receive the Fully Disclosed
Logic and Code.
(The
cost of your Trendchannel
purchase
may be tax deductible. Ask your tax advisor.)
It's easy to get started and
you can begin any time. Once you have made your Trendchannel
System purchase, you can either begin following the system signals
on your own, or if you prefer, I would be glad to put you in touch
with a Trendchannel System Assist Broker,
who you can direct to track and trade the system for your account.
Trendchannel
Trading System
Guarantee: If any
of the Trendchannel marketing information is not
true,
or if it is deceptive or misleading, or
if performance has been misrepresented, in any way, you can get a full
refund of the purchase price of the
Trendchannel System. You are
paying for this fully disclosed system along with research and
educational materials to trade the system. Please be advised that even
though the work that went into research to find the optimal trading
system was complex and extensive, the final solution, the
Trendchannel System, has been reduced to a relatively simple formula.
Trendchannel
Purchase:
If
you would like to purchase
the fully disclosed Trendchannel
System now, plus the Trendchannel
Trading Guide and all of the other extras included, to
be sent immediately to your e-mail address, please
send
a check
in the amount of $1,995 payable to Trendchannel, and
mail your payment to:
Trendchannel,
1501 Walz Avenue, Glenwood Springs, CO 81601 (please
include your e-mail address)
Before
Purchasing, please read the: Risk
Disclosure and Customer Agreement
Thank
you for
your interest in Trendchannel
and for giving me
the opportunity to help you with your trading.
If you have a
friend or associate who shares your interest, please tell them
about us.
If you have any questions, if you want additional information, or to get started
now,
please don't
hesitate
to e-mail or call
me. Thank you for your attention. I look forward to hearing from
you.
John
Tolan, Trendchannel System
Developer, tolan@Trendchannel.com
970-948-6211
Scientific
Trading Solutions, Inc. 1501
Walz Avenue,
Glenwood Springs, CO 81601
To
read about my background
as it relates to research and development of Trendchannel, please
see:
John Tolan Biographical Information,
"My Story"
http://www.trendchannel.com/mystory.htm
No completely
"safe" trading system has ever been devised. And
no one can guarantee profits,
or freedom from loss, or guarantee to limit the extent of
any loss trading. Certain market conditions may make it
difficult or impossible to limit losses to the amount
intended. You can read the: CFTC Consumer Advisory on
Trading Systems - "Beware of Websites Selling
Commodity Trading Systems that Guarantee High Profits with
Minimal Risks". http://www.cftc.gov/enf/00orders/enfposting4-tradingsystem.htm
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Futures
trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors: Please see: Risk
Disclosure
Scientific Trading Solutions, Inc. (DBA Trendchannel) is registered as a CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) with the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission (CFTC). The NFA (National Futures Association) can be
contacted for verification of CTA status. Futures Trading Systems: http://www.futurestradingsystems.com
Futures
Trading Links Google futures
trading commodity
trading commodity
trading advisor futures
trading
futures trading
commodities managed
futures accounts commodities
trading systems commodities
futures
trader futures
trading charts futures
trading software futures
trading online futures
trading course futures
trading strategies commodity
prices commodities
market Futures Truth CFTC NFA
Google
Finance
The risk of loss exists
in futures trading.
Copyright ©
1999-2008 Scientific Trading Solutions, Inc. Futures Trading
Trendchannel: Futures Trading System.