Trendchannel: Trend Following Futures Trading System.

Welcome to Trendchannel.com Futures Trading. I'm John Tolan, the developer 
of
Trendchannel
To learn more about our futures trading system and managed futures accounts, please read all of the information provided below, scrolling down the page.
(To Print this page, set the left and right margins in your File, Page Setup to 0.5".) 
If you have questions, or if you want additional information, please e-mail or call me.

  e-mail address:
    tolan@Trendchannel.com  

  phone number:    970-948-6211
  mailing address: 
1501 Walz Avenue, Glenwood Springs, CO 81601     

Trendchannel has been included in the Futures Truth "Top 10 Trading Systems" since 2001.

Introduction: Long Term Systematic Trend Following and the Model Portfolio. As traders or investors, we all want the same basic things. We prefer certainty to uncertainty and high returns to low returns. Our objective is to achieve a maximum rate of long term financial growth while minimizing risk. 

The Trendchannel Portfolio is the best solution that I have found to achieve these goals, a futures account that applies the Trendchannel Trading System to a balanced and diversified group of markets, seeking to produce consistent performance with an efficient reward/risk portfolio.

More than ever, investors are looking for alternative investment strategies that can provide capital growth in all market conditions. If the future is uncertain, then the best financial advice may be to 
diversify over multiple financial asset classes and prepare for markets that can move up or down.


Now, with the new E-Mini futures contracts, even with a relatively small futures account, you can achieve
broad diversification and profit potential by
systematically trading the up and down trends in the most 
actively traded 6 futures markets that represent the 4 major investment asset classes:

Trendchannel Portfolio 

Asset Class

Futures Market Traded 

 Stock Index
 Interest Rate
 Currency 
 Commodity

 E-Mini Nasdaq 100
 10 Yr T- Note, Eurodollar
 E-Mini Euro, E-Mini Yen
 Soybeans


Larger accounts may trade additional markets (E-Mini Crude, E-Mini Gold)
and multiple contracts.

You can give your portfolio a quick check-up with this question: Do you have any investments now that will generate positive returns if the stock market goes down, bonds go down (rates go higher), the dollar loses value, or commodity prices (inflation) go up? If the answer is no, then you may want to add a Trendchannel Portfolio to your investments to diversify and hedge to help reduce these market risks.

Profit and Protect
ion - A
Trendchannel Portfolio is an Investment Strategy with the goal to enhance returns, and it is an Investment Hedge that seeks to reduce risks. By taking advantage of both the 
up and down
trends caused by major capital flows in and out of each market sector, the program attempts to profit from market trends, and at the same time, protect you from the negative effects of: 

Inflation -
the erosion of money buying power over time.
Declines in the
Dollar -
the loss of Dollar buying power versus our major trading partners' currency.
Interest rate changes -
the rising costs of borrowing money
or lower returns from interest income.
Stock market declines -
economic down cycles or geopolitical uncertainties.

Diversification - One of the key tenets of Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Nobel Prize Winning Economist, Dr. Harry M. Markowitz, is that more efficient portfolios can be created by diversifying among asset categories with low to negative correlations. Dr. John Lintner of Harvard University states, "...judicious investments...in leveraged managed futures accounts show substantially less risk at every possible 
level of expected return than portfolios of stocks (or stocks and bonds) alone
.


Chicago Board of Trade's booklet, "Managed Futures, Portfolio Diversification Opportunities",  
shows a portfolio with the greatest risk and least returns comprised of 55% stocks, 45% bonds, and 0% managed futures. In contrast, a portfolio exhibiting the greatest returns and least risk, comprised 45% stocks, 35% bonds and 20% managed futures. 
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/docs/67790.pdf 

Chicago Mercantile Exchange published a study concluding that a portfolio with 20% in managed futures yields up to 50% more than stock and bond portfolios, while possessing comparable risk.

To achieve this suggested portfolio mix, consider allocating  
20% of your financial portfolio assets 
to a managed futures account trading a
Trendchannel Portfolio.

Summary of Potential Benefits
:
Diversifier, Return Enhancer, Risk Reducer.

  • Profit and Protection from Macro Economic Developments
  • Earn Above Average Returns
  • Capitalize on U.S. and Global Market Trends
  • Increase Your Portfolio Diversification
  • Maintain Liquidity of Your Investment Capital
  • Invest with a Time-Tested and 100% Automated System Strategy

Trendchannel, as a futures trading system, has the necessary components that work together to automatically provide solutions to the 3 basic investment questions: When, What, and How Much.
Or to use financial terminology: Market Timing, Asset Allocation, Money Management and Risk Control. 

1) When or Market Timing - When to enter and exit the market:
The Trend Indicator component of the Trendchannel System is based on a mathematical formula that combines adaptive measurements of price direction, momentum, and volatility to define when the markets are trending up, side, or down - giv
ing 
precise, computer generated entry and exit signals
, seeking to profit from market trends. Trendchannel 
has been included in the Futures Truth "Top 10 Trading Systems" since 2001.
 
2) What to Trade or Asset Allocation: Trendchannel is a versatile trend trading system that has been developed, tested, and can be applied to all markets. However, instead of randomly selecting markets, the Trendchannel Portfolio trades the key markets that represents each Asset Class:

Nasdaq 100 is the proxy for large capitalization technology stocks. 
10 Year Treasury Note
and Eurodollar are the
benchmarks for long and short-term interest rates. 
Euro
and Yen are 68% of the CME$Index of currencies.
Soybeans are the largest agricultural commodity futures.  

Larger accounts may trade additional markets (E-Mini Crude, E-Mini Gold)
and multiple contracts.

Capital Markets are inter-connected and inter-dependent - changes in any one of these markets can
cause an effect on the other markets in the Portfolio. Capital continually flows in and out of these assets,
creating opportunities to profit from the resulting trends. The cost of money (10 Year Treasury Note), the
cost of energy (Crude Oil), and the value of the dollar vs. our trading partners' currency (Euro, Yen) - all of
these cause an effect on the profitability of companies and consumer spending - stock prices (Nasdaq 100).


When investors are optimistic they buy stocks and sell bonds. When they are pessimistic or seek safety,
they sell stocks and buy bonds. We are seeking profit and protection by trading these CapitalFlow trends.

When traded as a Balanced and Diversified Trend Trading Portfolio, these Capital markets have 
historically generated the most profitable long-term trends with
the minimum
level of volatility risk.


3) How Much or Money Management/Risk Control: Trendchannel Portfolios use money management techniques with the objective to maximum returns with minimum drawdowns for any account size. 

Starter Portfolio: You can begin with an initial account size of $20,000, trading one futures contract per market. Larger accounts may trade additional markets (Eurodollar, E-Mini Yen, E-Mini Crude, E-Mini Gold) 
and multiple contracts.
E-Mini futures contracts are electronically traded and smaller than full-size contracts. 
The Total Initial Margin Requirement for the 4 Market Starter Portfolio is $6,693 as of Dec 31, 2007

Futures Contract

$Margin

 

 
E-Mini Nasdaq 100  3,250     
10 Year Treasury Note  1,620    
E-Mini Euro   1,283       
E-MiniSoybeans    540              

Trendchannel Performance for the 6 market Trendchannel Portfolio. 

Asset Class

Futures Market Traded 

 Stock Index
 Interest Rate
 Currency 
 Commodity

 E-Mini Nasdaq 100
 10 Yr T- Note, Eurodollar
 E-Mini Euro, E-Mini Yen
 Soybeans

The recommended minimum account size for the 6 Market Trendchannel Portfolio is $30,000.
Total Initial Margin Requirement for this
Trendchannel Portfolio is $11,081 as of Dec 31, 2007.

Here are the actual trading results, the net dollar profit/loss
($P/L),
for my own 6 market 
Trendchannel Portfolio futures trading account:

2008  +$17,421  (as of Feb 22, 2008)
2007  +$14,688
2006   -$ 3,462

Maximum Drawdown for this 2 year period was $8,758.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors:
Please see: Risk Disclosure    

To gain more historical perspective, the chart and table below show hypothetical performance
for the 
Trendchannel Portfolio beginning Jan 1995, the dollar profit/loss ($P/L)
trading one futures contract per market in the E-Mini Nasdaq (E-ND), 10 Year Treasury Note
(TY), Eurodollar (ED), E-Mini Euro (E-EC), E-Mini Yen (E-JY), and Soybeans (S).
 

 

   E-ND

     TY

   ED

 E-EC

  E-JY

   S

   $P/L

$P/L

Dec-05

-4,480

-609

411

-3,044

1,556

2,800

-3,366

202,980

Dec-04

-630

703

120

-125

-2,100

7,975

5,943

206,345

Dec-03

2,240

406

-1,027

8,288

219

9,537

19,662

200,402

Dec-02

8,670

7,328

2,682

7,581

-3,325

1,937

24,873

180,740

Dec-01

13,380

734

9,782

-2,713

5,406

3,075

29,665

155,867

Dec-00

21,776

6,640

2,230

8,806

3,863

700

44,015

126,203

Dec-99

20,749

140

832

2,750

300

2,437

27,208

82,188

Dec-98

3,703

1,843

212

-1,681

11,119

-900

14,296

54,980

Dec-97

1,178

1,906

137

-256

7,969

-1,662

9,272

40,685

Dec-96

1,550

-2,375

-1,450

6,525

6,756

-2,875

8,131

31,413

Dec-95

1,413

12,593

-112

-6,375

16,738

-975

23,282

23,282

Average

6,323

2,664

1,256

1,796

4,409

2,004

18,453

 

Notes to the Chart and Table shown above:
All numbers are annual $Profit/Loss ($P/L), including closed trades and open trade equity,
the net liquidating value at year end. The last column is the running total annual $P/L.
The Nasdaq 100 began trading in 1996. The Nasdaq 100 index x 20 was used for 1995.
The Euro (EC) began trading in 1999. The Swiss Franc was used for 1995 through 1998.
The E-Mini $P/L = (full-size contract)/2. E-Mini Nasdaq = ND/5. 
TradeStation software and continuous data charts were used to generate the hypothetical performance. Commissions are not included. Trendchannel averages 8 trades, (one contract per trade) per market per year. 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Advisory:
  Portfolios may be revised in the future based on changes in margin requirements, futures trading volume, volatility, correlation, or other possible considerations. Margin to equity ratios and position size are general guidelines for the aggressive investor or trader. You must evaluate your own financial situation and 
risk tolerance to determine what is suitable for you. Please see: Risk Disclosure

Financial Suitability:  The Trendchannel Portfolio is designed to be a complement to your investments. Seeking to maintain diversification and balance, increase returns, reduce volatility risk, and provide an investment hedge, I suggest a maximum allocation of $20,000 in managed futures per $100,000 in total financial assets, creating a portfolio mix that is 80% stocks and bonds, and 20% managed futures.

In conclusion, to achieve your financial goals of both return enhancement and risk reduction, it 
may be wise to diversify by allocating a portion of your investment capital to a managed futures account trading a
Trendchannel Portfolio -
a Systematic, Trend Trading, Asset Allocation Strategy. 

You can
direct a full service
Trendchannel System Assist Broker to auto-execute the Trendchannel
Trading System
signals for your account.
Trendchannel System Assist is a simple, time-saving, and 
cost effective way to take advantage of opportunities in futures.
It's easy to open an account and you can begin trading the system at any time

Or, if you prefer to trade on your own, you can purchase the
Trendchannel System and receive by e-mail the fully disclosed Trendchannel System Manual and Trading Guide
. For self-directed traders, please see this page to learn more: http://www.trendchannel.com/futurestradingsystem.htm

Trendchannel Purchase:
If you would like to purchase the fully disclosed Trendchannel System now, plus the Trendchannel Trading Guide and all of the other extras included, to be sent immediately to your e-mail address, please send a check in the amount of $1,995 payable to Trendchannel, and mail your payment to: 
Trendchannel, 1501 Walz Avenue, Glenwood Springs, CO 81601  (please include your e-mail address)

Before Purchasing, please read the: Risk Disclosure and Customer Agreement

If you have any questions, if you want additional information, or to get started now, please don't hesitate
to e-mail or call
me. Thank you for your attention. I look forward to hearing from you.    

John Tolan, Trendchannel System Developer,  tolan@Trendchannel.com   970-948-6211 
Scientific Trading Solutions, Inc. 1501 Walz Avenue, Glenwood Springs, CO 81601

To read about my background as it relates to research and development of Trendchannel, please see:
John Tolan Biographical Information, "My Story"  http://www.trendchannel.com/mystory.htm

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors: Please see: Risk Disclosure

Scientific Trading Solutions, Inc. (DBA Trendchannel) is registered as a CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The NFA (National Futures Association) can be contacted for verification of CTA status. Futures Trading Systems: http://www.futurestradingsystems.com   


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